25 Sep 2022

JPMorgan analyst drops COIN price target, saying “falling cryptocurrency markets will pressure the stock price”

JPMorgan’s North American equity team is lowering its price target for shares of Coinbase Global from $78 to $60 for December.

The publicly listed crypto exchange draws the majority of its revenue from U.S. crypto trading levels, meaning its third and fourth quarter earnings hinge on crypto trading interest.

“We think pressure on Coinbase revenue from falling cryptocurrency markets will pressure the stock price,” JPMorgan analysts wrote.

Shares of Coinbase Global (COIN) sold down from their $72 high Wednesday to $62 Friday. Still hanging above its June lows, the stock has fallen 11% over the past five days and 75% year to date.

Analysts said Coinbase is expected to see low trading volume by U.S. retail crypto investors through December with the expectation that activity will pick up at the beginning of the first quarter of next year.

According to crypto volume indexer, Nomics, current volumes for Coinbase have fallen 15% over the past month to $48 billion. The figure is only half of the volume Coinbase’s trading business received at the beginning of the year.

As of its second-quarter earnings, Coinbase's revenue depends heavily on trading volume over the near term. Its business strategy aims to reduce trading as a profit mix by growing subscription and services products, which made up 18% of revenue in its second quarter.

Staking is the Coinbase subscription service that’s recently received the most attention from customers. Critical for proof of stake blockchain protocols, staking rewards investors who pledge capital with a percentage yield.

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